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Financial crises, implied volatility and stress testing


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This paper surveys the behavior of forward-looking asset prices during market crises, with particular focus on historical and implied volatilities. We focus on two specific episodes, the European monetary crisis of 1992-1993 and the Asian crisis of 1997 to 1999. Implied volatilities are shown to contain useful information for predicting market stress in the immediate future.
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Allan Malz
October 2001
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